Monthly Archives: January 2018

Europe’s Last Chance: Why the European States Must Form a More Perfect Union

img2Europe is caught in its greatest crisis since the Second World War. The catalog of ills seems endless: an economic crisis spread through most of Europe’s Mediterranean tier that has crippled Greece and driven a wedge between northern and southern Europe; terrorist attacks in Paris, Cologne, Brussels, and Nice; growing aggression from Russia in Ukraine and the Baltic states; and refugees escaping war-torn Continue reading

What Is a Border?

imgThe fall of the Berlin Wall, symbol of the bipolar order that emerged after World War II, seemed to inaugurate an age of ever fewer borders. The liberalization and integration of markets, the creation of vast free-trade zones, the birth of a new political and monetary union in Europe—all seemed to point in that direction. Only thirty years later, the tendency appears to be quite the opposite. Talk of a wall with Mexico is only one sign among many that boundaries and borders are being revisited, expanding in number, and being reintroduced where they had virtually been abolished. Is this an out-of-step, deceptive last gasp of national sovereignty or the victory of the weight of history over the power of place? The fact that borders have made a comeback, warns Manlio Graziano, in his analysis of the dangerous fault lines that have opened in the contemporary world, does not mean that they will resolve any problems. His geopolitical history and analysis of the phenomenon draws our attention to the ground shifting under our feet in the present and allows us to speculate on what might happen in the future.

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios

img2Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades.

This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Continue reading

Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe

img2New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman delivers a fascinating portrait of modern-day Europe, with special focus on significant political, cultural, and geographical flashpoints where the conflicts of the past are smoldering once again.

For the past five hundred years, Europe has been the nexus of global culture and power. But throughout most of that history, most European countries have also been volatile and unstable—some even ground zero Continue reading

Central Asia: In Search of a New Identity

img2The Western reader is not well acquainted with Central Asia. This vast region in the great depths of Asia is confined between two giants, Russia and China, while also sharing its boundaries with two worrisome neighbors, Iran and Afghanistan. Central Asia is the region of ancient, sui generis civilization, where two major ethnic groups, of Iran (Indo-Iranian peoples) and of Turan (Turkic peoples), continuously confronted each other for many centuries. After being colonized by Russia, Central Asia ‘disappeared’ from history for more than a century and only the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed the Central Asian peoples to return to the modern world and regain their sovereignty. But how is it possible to transition from the poverty-stricken, totalitarian Continue reading